Trade analysis and advice on trading the Japanese yen
The tests of the levels I indicated in the first half of the day did not happen due to low volatility, which followed yesterday's significant sell-off of the US dollar ahead of important data. In the second half of the day, everything will depend on the US reports. Special attention will be paid to the increase in the number of new jobs. If the data turns out to be worse than the March figures, the dollar will most likely continue to decline, so it is better to consider selling the pair in such a case. If the April figures remain at a high level, the dollar will recover some of yesterday's losses against the yen. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of Scenario #1, even despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect a strong and directional movement.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 153.36 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to the level of 154.39 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 154.39, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Expecting the pair to rise today in continuation of a bull market. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 152.82 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turn upward. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 153.36 and 154.39.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 152.82 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 151.97, where I will exit the sales and also immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of weak data from the US. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 153.36 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turn downward. Expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 152.82 and 151.97.
Chart Elements:
Thin green line – entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be fixed independently, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be fixed independently, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.