The price test of 1.0639 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator sharply fell from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential - especially when it is trading in the sideways channel. After a short period of time, this level was tested once again and this happened when the MACD was in the oversold area and recovered from there. As a result, the pair rose by more than 20 pips. In the absence of Eurozone and US data on Monday, it isn't surprising that the euro spent the day mostly in a sideways channel.
Today, the situation may significantly change, but for this to happen, the data's values must turn out to be sharply different from economists' forecasts. Today, traders may focus on the pan-Eurozone HCOB PMIs for April, and the Composite PMI. The bears will be active if the reports turn out to be weak, which will strengthen the downward trend and push the price to monthly lows. Good data may stop the euro from falling. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No 1. Today you can buy the euro when the price reaches the area around 1.0660 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0695. At the level of 1.0695, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today on the condition of good eurozone data. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0639 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0660 and 1.0695.
Sell signalsScenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0639 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0611, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate in the area of the daily high and weak PMI data. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0660 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0639 and 1.0611.
The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market
Important: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.