Analysis of Deals and Trading Tips for the British Pound
The test of the 1.2424 price level in the first half coincided with the moment the MACD indicator began its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points, and that was it. News that retail sales volume in the UK in March of this year remained unchanged compared to the previous month did not exert significant pressure on the pound. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase. All this indicates that the weak economic recovery will continue, eventually forcing the Bank of England to lower interest rates. Unfortunately, there are no US statistics in the second half of the day, nor are there any planned speeches by Federal Reserve representatives, which may keep trading within a narrow range with a slight advantage for buyers. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches the entry point around 1.2454 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.2486 (thicker green line). I will exit purchases around 1.2486 and open sales in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30-35 point move in the opposite direction from the level). The pound's growth can be expected as part of the upward correction, but a strong movement is unlikely. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2422 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the upward market. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.2454 and 1.2486.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level of 1.2422 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2391, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves against the backdrop of the lack of buyer activity around the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2454 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2422 and 1.2391.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line - entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line - the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line - the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, following overbought and oversold zones is important.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.