Trade Analysis and Tips on Trading the European Currency
The price test at 1.0646 in the first half of the day coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the buy signal for the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 points, and that was it. Market attention disregarded news on German producer prices, allowing the euro to continue its recovery after a major sell-off observed during the Asian session. Unfortunately, no statistics are planned for the second half of the day, and there are no scheduled speeches by Fed representatives, which may keep trading within a sideways channel with a slight advantage for buyers. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0664 (green line on the chart), with the target to rise to 1.0698. At 1.0698, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Today, the rise in the euro can only be expected with a small upward correction. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0639 at a moment when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0664 and 1.0698.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching 1.0639 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0615, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a lack of buyer activity around the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0664 at a moment when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0639 and 1.0615.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – the expected price, where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually fixed, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – the expected price, where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually fixed, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.