Overview of yesterday's trading and tips on USD/JPY
The test of 153.94 in the afternoon occurred at the time when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point to buy the US dollar during the ongoing bull market. As a result, USD/JPY rose by more than 40 pips. Robust retail sales in the US once again confirmed economists' fears that American inflation is again gaining strength. So, it is unlikely to count on a rate cut this summer. This creates an even greater imbalance in currency pairs with the Japanese yen, which cannot find any support even from the forex interventions of the central bank, which, by the way, have not happened for a long time. As for long positions in such a bull market, I am going to take advantage of corrections and pullbacks. Entering with long positions during a breakout at current highs is quite dangerous, so don't forget about stop orders. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy signals
Scenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 154.59 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 155.03 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 155.03, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today based on the trend after breaking through the daily high. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 154.20 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 154.59 and 155.03.
Sell signals
Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level of 154.20 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 153.75, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return after an unsuccessful breakout of the daily high and active actions by the central bank. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 154.59 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.20 and 153.75.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market
Important: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.