The pound remains within the horizontal part of the trend, which is not actually a trend. I would like to remind you that a downward wave is currently being formed. It is assumed that the wave 2 or b is finally complete, but this could be extended. We have seen a horizontal pattern within this wave for several months now. However, the wave analysis still suggests that the pound will fall towards the 1.20 level and below.
This week, we can see that the news background is not capable of exerting such a strong influence on market sentiment to facilitate a successful attempt to break through the 1.25 level. In recent weeks and months, there have been significant events in both the UK and the US that could have pushed the market to buy the dollar. However, this hasn't been enough for the exchange rate to settle below the 1.2512 mark (the low of wave B in 2 or b). Therefore, it would be better not to expect much from the upcoming news background.
There won't be many important news events in the UK. GDP and industrial production reports for February will be released on Friday, April 12th. These data are definitely much weaker than this week's U.S. reports. Therefore, there's a very low chance of seeing an end to the sideways movement in the next five days.
Certainly, there will be more news in America, including an important inflation report. But even if the Consumer Price Index accelerates again, the market will not use this report to the dollar's advantage. I believe that there is a much higher probability of seeing the pound rise with targets around the 1.2824 mark, corresponding to 23.6% Fibonacci.
Wave analysis for EUR/USD:Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0462 mark, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci.
The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c will start sooner or later. However, unless we can guarantee that wave 2 or b has ended, the instrument can still rise to the level of 1.3140, which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci. The quotes haven't moved far away from the peaks, so we cannot confirm the start of the wave 3 or c.
Key principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to work with, and they often bring changes.
If you are not confident about the market's movement, it would be better not to enter it.
We cannot guarantee the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders.
Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.