Considering such boring factors like population size, its growth rate, and the level of economic activity, in order to simply maintain labor market stability, employment in the United States should grow by an average of 250,000 per month. However, over the past seven months, it has only increased by a total of 896,000. This indicates an average of 128,000 per month, or almost half of what is needed. This raised many questions about the adequacy of unemployment data, which remains near record lows. Finally, on Friday, this imbalance was somewhat addressed when the US Department of Labor reported the first increase in unemployment in seven months, jumping from 3.7% to 3.9%. The dollar immediately started to lose its positions, which was absolutely logical in this situation. However, since the middle of last week, the US dollar has fallen quite significantly, and this process has not always been entirely reasonable. So today, in the absence of any significant economic events, the market may experience some kind of correction, and the dollar may recover some of its losses.
EUR/USD almost reached the level of 1.1000, and we noticed that the volume of long positions decreased around this mark. As a result, the pair retreated, and the quote dropped below the 1.0950 mark.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which indicates the pair's bullish potential.
On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, indicating an upward cycle.
OutlookConsidering that the quote has almost reached the level of 1.1000, the euro may be overbought in the short term period, and it could bounce. However, based on another component, this may point to the recovery process in the euro after a decline in January and early February. In this scenario, the current pullback may play a role in the balance of trading forces, which considers the possibility of a new surge in the volume of long positions. In this case, the buyers will soon breach the resistance level of 1.1000.
Complex indicator analysis points to the current pullback in the short-term timeframe, while intraday indicators indicate an upward cycle.