Apparently, the single currency has only been subjected to technical factors in the last few days. Reaching the upper limit of a fairly narrow range, it instantly rushed towards the lower limit. This happened during the release of the US unemployment claims report, which turned out to be worse than expected. The total number was expected to increase by 12,000, but in reality, it increased by 58,000. Moreover, the number of continued claims increased by 45,000. This is quite a lot, and theoretically, the dollar should have weakened, not strengthened.
However, it seems that the market needs something more significant to pull it out of the flat phase. For instance, an inflation report, which is scheduled for release today. Most likely, the anticipation for this particular report is what keeps the market in a kind of balance. Considering that market players expect a slowdown in the growth rate of consumer prices in the eurozone from 2.8% to 2.5%, the euro could go below the current range. The unemployment report may exert pressure on the pair, as it is expected to increase from 6.4% to 6.5%.
The EUR/USD pair once again reached the level of 1.0800, and we observed that the volume of short positions decreased around this mark. Based on speculative price jumps, we can assume that the range of 1.0800/1.0850 will soon complete its formation.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of 30/50. This technical signal indicates a bearish bias.
On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards; however, due to the sideways range, the technical tool may be misleading.
Outlook:Keeping the price below the level of 1.0800 may strengthen short positions in the euro, and this could result in a subsequent decline in the exchange rate. Until then, the price still has a chance to rebound towards the boundary of 1.0850.
Complex indicator analysis indicates a downward move in the short- and long-term timeframes.