Strangely enough, the market remained completely indifferent to the decline in orders for durable goods in the United States by 6.1%. Such a significant reduction clearly foreshadows a substantial decrease in consumer activity, which serves as the engine of economic growth. Logically, such data should have led to a weakening of the dollar.
However, after some time, the dollar began to rise. The reason for this was the data from the American Petroleum Institute on the reserves of black gold in U.S. storage, which increased by 8.4 million barrels. Although usually, inventory data, even if they influence the energy market, have a relatively weak impact on the currency market.
So, everything indicates that the euro has hit a certain ceiling, and there is simply nowhere for it to grow further.
The main event of today formally is the publication of the United States GDP data for the fourth quarter. However, they are unlikely to have a significant impact, as it is the second estimate, meant to confirm the first. Even if it differs, the influence will be insignificant due to the market having already factored in the acceleration of economic growth from 2.9% to 3.1%. In case of data deviation, the market will only make a slight correction.
Due to yesterday's report from the American Petroleum Institute, similar data from the U.S. Department of Energy will likely be in focus. Considering the expected increase in reserves by 2.7 million barrels, the dollar may strengthen a bit more.
Despite local jumps in the price above 1.0850 in the EUR/USD pair, there is still fixation below this value in the daily period. This action indicates a reduction in the volume of long positions on the euro, which negatively affects the upward cycle.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI is crossing the 50 midline from top to bottom, indicating an increase in the volume of short positions on the euro.
On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are directed upwards, which still corresponds to the upward cycle.
Outlook
The current pullback in the structure of the upward cycle can easily bring the quote to around the level of 1.0800. Subsequent movement will depend on how market participants behave relative to this level. In the case of price stabilization below it in the daily period, the upward cycle may be interrupted, positively affecting the subsequent increase in the volume of short positions on the euro. However, in the scenario of price rebound, there is a possibility of a new upward movement, with the update of the local high.
The comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods indicates a downward trend.