The currency market remains stagnant, as indicated by the pound, which exhibited unusually high volatility yesterday, particularly compared to the single European currency. Despite this, it did not surpass fifty points. Nonetheless, there is a possibility of a revival and a potential exit from the current situation today.
The data released on durable goods orders, though carrying slightly more weight than yesterday's figures on primary market home sales, lacks the significance needed to exert a substantial influence on the market. However, a crucial aspect needs attention. These orders are expected to decrease by 4.0%, a considerable figure that implies a decline in consumer activity, persisting for a certain duration.
But it is consumer activity that is the engine of economic growth. Therefore, there is a risk of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. It is too early to talk about a recession, but at least there are signs of such a development. This, in turn, can have a negative impact on the U.S. currency and eventually take the market out of the stagnation that began last Thursday.
The GBP/USD currency pair once again reduced the volume of long positions when the price approached the level of 1.2700. As a result, there was a pullback, while the bullish sentiment persists among market participants.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI is moving in the upper range of 50/70, confirming traders' interest in further growth despite the ongoing pullback.
On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are pointing upwards, corresponding to the current cycle.
Outlook
For the next stage of the pound's recovery, stabilization of the price above the 1.2700 level is necessary. In this scenario, growth towards the 1.2800 level is possible. Otherwise, there may be fluctuation between 1.2650/1.2700.
The comprehensive indicator analysis in the short term indicates a pullback from the 1.2700 level. Meanwhile, in the intraday period, indicators are oriented towards an upward cycle.