Key events on February 15: fundamental analysis for beginners

There are few macroeconomic events on Thursday, but some of them are important. In our opinion, the main item on today's agenda is the UK data, which will be published in the morning. The UK will release reports on GDP for the fourth quarter and industrial production. This will be the first estimate for the fourth quarter, so it could deviate from the forecast (-0.1%). In general, it is extremely difficult to expect a positive value from the British economy at the moment, so we don't think that the British pound will receive a significant advantage from this report. As for industrial production, market players expect a decrease of 0.2-0.4% for December. Once again, it will be difficult to find optimism in this report.

No economic reports in the EU today, while the U.S. will release three secondary reports. In reality, the retail sales report could trigger a market reaction, but it is unlikely to be a strong one. The same applies to reports on industrial production and initial jobless claims. We can expect stronger movements during the U.S. session. However, both pairs continue to show very low volatility.

There will be few fundamental events on Thursday. This week, representatives of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have delivered speeches almost every day, but there have been few significant statements. The market hardly focuses on them. The fundamental background remains the same. However, today, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak. This is could be interesting and it may catch the attention of the market.

On Thursday, the British currency will depend on economic data. If the UK releases disappointing reports, the pound may fall further, which would be logical. However, at the same time, if the UK economy did not contract in the fourth quarter, this could support the British currency, and may offset the pound's decline from the last two days. We also recommend paying attention to Lagarde's speech.

1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.

2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.

3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.

4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.

5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.

6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.

Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.

The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.

Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.

Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.