Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 13. Simple tips for beginners

EUR/USD continued its sluggish upward movement on Monday, reflecting the same dull trend observed for most of the previous week. There were no significant fundamental or macroeconomic events during the day. While speeches by European Central Bank officials Fabio Panetta and Philip Lane, as well as Federal Reserve official Lael Brainard, were noteworthy, their statements might not carry much weight if the pair moves less than 50 pips in a day. Clearly, the market is in a state of anticipation. Perhaps it is waiting for major players to show the way forward or it could be waiting for inflation data. In any case, the current movements are very weak, making it quite difficult to trade.

The downtrend persists, as shown by the descending trendline; however, based on what we're seeing right now, it could overcome this at any moment. What's interesting is that breaking this trendline won't necessarily indicate a shift to an uptrend. The current movement resembles a flat, and in a flat market, trendlines may not hold.

The pair did not form any relevant entry signals on the 5-minute timeframe. To be more precise, the price entered the range of 1.0767-1.0781 during the European session, and it continued to trade within this range for the rest of the day. Perhaps the price will leave this range on Tuesday, and this will provide a trading signal. However, it is difficult to anticipate strong movements.

On the hourly chart, the downtrend remains intact, but it is quite clear that the market is not inclined to either buy or sell aggressively. We still expect the euro to show a pronounced decline, as the fundamental and macroeconomic background cannot support it at the moment. On Tuesday, traders will have access to genuinely important information, so we could see stronger movements from the pair.

The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0568, 1.0611-1.0618, 1.0668, 1.0725, 1.0767-1.0781, 1.0835, 1.0896-1.0904, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981, 1.1011, 1.1043, 1.1091. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index will be published on Tuesday, but these are not crucial data. The US inflation report for January will be a key focus. Forecasts for it are relatively neutral, but the actual value can significantly deviate from forecasts.

1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.

2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.

3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.

4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.

5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.

6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.

Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.

The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.

Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.

Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.