Having ended the past week on a negative note, with a decrease of 46 points, the new week and today's trading day opened for EUR/USD with a downward gap and continued to decline in its first half.
As of writing, the pair was trading near the level of 1.0825. This level is intersected by an important medium-term support level (144 EMA on the daily chart). Further decline and a breakdown of the key support level at 1.0805 (200 EMA on the daily chart) will lead EUR/USD into the zone of the medium-term bearish market.
At the same time, the pair continues to trade in the zone of the long-term bearish market, below the key resistance level of 1.1000 (200 EMA on the weekly chart).
Therefore, a breakdown of the levels of 1.0805 and 1.0800 will only confirm the advantage of short-term and long-term short positions. The downside targets in the implementation of this main scenario are local support levels 1.0530, 1.0450, and then marks 1.0400, 1.0300, near which the lower boundary of the downward channel on the weekly chart passes.
In an alternative scenario, a rebound will occur from the support levels of 1.0805 and 1.0825, and an upward correction of EUR/USD, which began in October 2023, will resume. In this case, the targets for growth could be resistance levels 1.1000 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), 1.1040 (50 EMA on the monthly chart). Their breakout, in turn, would lead EUR/USD into the zone of the long-term bullish market, making long-term long positions preferable, with targets at the global resistance level of 1.1630 (200 EMA on the monthly chart).
The first signal to open long positions could be the breakout of the short-term resistance level of 1.0850 (200 EMA on the 15-minute chart), and the confirming one could be the breakout of the resistance levels 1.0875 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), 1.0880 (50 EMA on the daily chart).
Thus, the current range formed between the levels of 1.0850 and 1.0805 with a conditional middle line passing through the mark of 1.0825 is almost "fateful" for EUR/USD in terms of determining the vector of further movement. This vector will most likely be set by breaking through the upper or lower boundary of the range we have marked.
Support levels: 1.0825, 1.0805, 1.0800, 1.0725, 1.0700, 1.0660, 1.0600, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0300
Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0875, 1.0880, 1.0900, 1.0920, 1.1000, 1.1040, 1.1090, 1.1100, 1.1140, 1.1200, 1.1275, 1.1300, 1.1400, 1.1500, 1.1530, 1.1600, 1.1630
Trading Scenarios
Main Scenario: Sell Stop 1.0790. Stop-Loss 1.0860. Targets 1.0725, 1.0700, 1.0660, 1.0600, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0300
Alternative Scenario: Buy Stop 1.0860. Stop-Loss 1.0790. Targets 1.0875, 1.0880, 1.0900, 1.0920, 1.1000, 1.1040, 1.1090, 1.1100, 1.1140, 1.1200, 1.1275, 1.1300, 1.1400, 1.1500, 1.1530, 1.1600, 1.1630
"Targets" correspond to support/resistance levels. This also does not mean that they will necessarily be reached but can serve as a guide when planning and placing your trading positions.