EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on January 11th (analysis of morning deals). US inflation data will determine the direction of the dollar

In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.0956 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The decline did occur, but it fell short of a false breakout and the formation of an entry point by just a couple of points, so I missed that trade. In the second half of the day, the technical picture remained unchanged.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:

The absence of significant fundamental statistics implied that the market would show little momentum in the first half of the day. However, euro buying on the decline indicates fairly strong interest ahead of the important US inflation data. We have the Consumer Price Index for December ahead, but paying more attention to core prices is better. A decrease in core prices will weaken the dollar and lead to a more active euro recovery, whereas a sharp rise in prices at the end of the year, for various reasons, could put pressure on the pair, which is what I plan to capitalize on. The weekly initial and continuing jobless claims data in the US is unlikely to be of great interest against the backdrop of the expected inflation figures. If price pressure returns, I will only act after forming a false breakout near the nearest support at 1.0956. This will provide a suitable entry point and lead to an upward movement towards 1.0996, which the euro is currently trying to reach. A breakout and renewal above this range define the development of the bullish scenario, giving a chance to buy with a move towards 1.1035. The ultimate target will be the high of 1.1076, where I will take profit. However, such a scenario is possible only in the event of a significant decrease in US inflation. In the case of EUR/USD declining and no activity at 1.0956 in the second half of the day, the pressure on the pair will increase. In this case, I plan to enter the market only after forming a false breakout near last week's low at 1.0912. I will consider opening long positions from the bounce off 1.0879, targeting an intraday uptrend correction of 30-35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:

As long as trading remains within a sideways channel, the chances of the euro falling are quite high. For this to happen, there must be an inflation spike at the end of last year, which will postpone the Fed's rate cut plans and strengthen the dollar's position. In the event of a bullish reaction to the data, only the formation of a false breakout around 1.0996 will indicate the presence of sellers in the market and lead to a downward movement towards 1.0956, where the moving averages are located. After breaking and firmly closing below this range and a bottom-up retest, I expect to find another entry point in the market with a target of 1.0912. Defending this level will be the last hope for buyers. The ultimate target will be the low of 1.0879, where I will take profit. If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day after a series of US economic data releases and there are no bears at 1.0996, demand for EUR/USD will return, along with the prospects of building an uptrend. In that case, I will postpone selling until testing the next resistance at 1.1035. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions from a bounce off 1.1076, targeting a downtrend correction of 30-35 points.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading occurs above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating the likelihood of further euro growth.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly H1 chart, which differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands:

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator at around 1.0956 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions: