In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.2820 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The rise and the formation of a false breakout at this level generated a selling signal for the pound, resulting in a drop in the pair by more than 30 points. The technical picture was slightly revised for the second half of the day.
To open long positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:
Ahead, a lot of data could influence the balance of power. Reports on initial and continuing jobless claims in the United States, the trade balance in goods, and changes in pending home sales are expected. Strong data will increase pressure on the pound at the end of the year, so I expect a decline towards the nearest support at 1.2783. This level holds great promise, but only a false breakout there will provide a suitable entry point for long positions, from which the upward movement should be quite rapid towards 1.2823. A breakout and consolidation above the monthly high will strengthen demand for the pound and open the path to 1.2853. The ultimate target will be the area around 1.2884, where I plan to make a profit. In the scenario of a decline in the pair and the absence of bullish activity at 1.2783 in the second half of the day, as bears attempt to offset yesterday's rise, I will postpone purchases until the next support at 1.2746, where the moving averages are located, supporting the bulls. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound only from 1.27115 with the goal of a 30-35 point correction within the day.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:
Sellers still have a chance for a correction of the pair, but for this, they need to show themselves around 1.2783. In case of a positive reaction to the US data, only an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above 1.2823, similar to what I discussed earlier, will provide an entry point for short positions with the prospect of returning to 1.2783. A breakout and a retest from the bottom to the top of this range will deliver a more serious blow to the bulls' positions, leading to the sweep of stop orders and opening the path to 1.2746, where buyers will become more active. The ultimate target will be the area of 1.2711, where I plan to make a profit. In the case of GBP/USD moving upward and the absence of activity at 1.2823, as this level has already worked once, the development of the bullish market will continue. In such a case, I will sell only on a false breakout at 1.2853. If there is no downward movement, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound only from 1.2884, but with the expectation of a downward correction of the pair by 30-35 points within the day.
Indicator signals:
Moving Averages
Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further pound growth.
Note: The author on the H1 chart determines the period and prices of moving averages and differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 chart.
Bollinger Bands
In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2783 will act as support.
Indicator Descriptions:
• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands. Period 20.
• Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between non-commercial traders' long and short positions.