For Thursday, there are few scheduled macroeconomic events. In general, US reports will draw investor interest, as the economic calendars in the UK, Germany, and the eurozone are empty. The first report is the final estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter, and the second is a regular report on initial jobless claims. The GDP report appears important, but it often fails to provoke a market reaction. The reason is that this report is released in three estimates, and each of these estimates rarely differ from the others. Forecasts suggest a value of 5.2%, but even a deviation from this figure may be ignored by the market.
As for the report on initial jobless claims, it rarely deviates from the forecasted value. Every week, we see roughly the same forecasts and actual values. Thus, the probability of a market reaction to this report is also low.
Analysis of fundamental events:There is nothing to highlight in the fundamental events. Of course, there may be unplanned speeches and interviews during the day, but we cannot discuss them now for obvious reasons. In general, it is very difficult to expect important statements from European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, and Bank of England representatives, as Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, and Jerome Powell had already reported everything the market needs to know. Market participants already understand the central banks' plans. Central bank heads are unlikely to share fundamentally new information.
General conclusion:On Thursday, we can only highlight one report, which is the US GDP report. However, if its value does not differ from 5.2%, the market will simply have nothing to react to. Therefore, we might witness weak movements. The pound has been trading quite volatile recently, but the euro is increasingly standing still.
Basic rules of a trading system:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.
2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.
3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, post which all open trades should be manually closed.
5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trend line or trend channel.
6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.
How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.
The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.
Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.
Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.