The Federal Reserve lowered its inflation forecast for next year while simultaneously raising the forecast for economic growth rates. Following that, Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there would be rate cuts, but he did not give specific timelines. Nevertheless, the statements imply that the Fed will no longer raise the refinancing rate, and its first reduction will likely take place early next year. Dollar unsurprisingly fell in price because of the news.
However, today, the situation may turn around as both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will hold their meetings. The outcomes may be similar, except, of course, for inflation forecasts and economic growth rates. After all, the eurozone practically slipped into a recession, with a downturn already beginning in Germany. Inflation in the region also slowed quite briskly, nearing 2.0%.
If the Bank of England announces its intention to begin easing monetary policy next year, the European Central Bank will probably announce plans to reduce interest rates in the first quarter of 2024. This will lead to a return to the previous trading levels, right before the meeting of the Federal Reserve. After that, dollar will continue to rise, unless the ECB surprises with more stringent rhetoric.
As EUR/USD gained over 100 pips, the volume of long positions surged, which led to further growth above the level of 1.0900. Staying around this area will help buyers push the price to 1.1000. However, a slowdown may occur due to the overbought conditions of euro.
GBP/USD also rose in price and may hit the level of 1.2700. However, a slowdown may occur due to the local overbought conditions of pound in the short term.