Key events on December 13: fundamental analysis for beginners

Analysis of macroeconomic reports:

There's a full plate of macroeconomic events slated for Wednesday. The UK will release reports on industrial production and GDP. Industrial production is not exactly crucial, and a market reaction is possible only in the case of a significant deviation of the actual value from the forecast (-0.1%). The same applies to the monthly GDP. The market does not always react to quarterly reports, and they usually brush off monthly reports.

From the euro area, traders may look to the release of the industrial production data. As mentioned, a market reaction is possible only in the case of a significant deviation so we don't expect a strong reaction here. In the afternoon, the US will release the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is directly related to inflation. However, the inflation report has already been published, so we do not expect a strong market response to this report either.

Analysis of fundamental events:

The only fundamental event scheduled for the day is the FOMC meeting. Naturally, traders will be interested not in the meeting itself but in its results and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech. Traders should react to this event, even if the central bank does not announce any important decisions. However, the reaction can be quite chaotic. For example, the pair may initially rise, then fall, and return to the initial positions. Or vice versa.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, we advise you to pay close attention to the FOMC meeting. It is scheduled for late in the evening, so there is time to leave the market and avoid risks. At the same time, if profitable trades are open half an hour before the announcement of the results, which can be transferred to breakeven, you can mantain them. We could witness strong movement during these hours, and, accordingly, profits can increase.

Basic rules of a trading system:

1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.

2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.

3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.

4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, post which all open trades should be manually closed.

5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trend line or trend channel.

6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.

How to read charts:

Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.

The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.

Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.

Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.