Trade analysis and tips for trading the British pound
In the second half of the day, the test of the price at 1.2570 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was starting its downward movement from the zero mark, giving a good signal to sell the pound. However, a major sell-off of the pair did not materialize, although the downward movement amounted to about 20 points. Today, there are no fundamental statistics, so traders have nothing to rely on in the first half of the day. Most likely, trading will be subdued before important US labor market data is released, so I do not expect a unidirectional movement. As for the intraday strategy, I will act based on the implementation of scenario No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Buying the pound today is possible when the entry point is around 1.2595 (green line), with the target to rise to 1.2642 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2642, I recommend exiting the purchases and opening sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on the pound's rise today in the first half of the day is unlikely – perhaps only in continuation of a small upward correction. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: Buying the pound today is also possible in the case of two consecutive price tests at 1.2555 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market reversal. Expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2595 and 1.2642.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: Selling the pound today is possible only after updating the level of 1.2555 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2514. I recommend exiting sales and immediately opening purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves only after US labor market data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is only starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2: Selling the pound today is also possible in the case of two consecutive price tests at 1.2595 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward reversal of the market. Expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.2555 and 1.2514.
On the Chart:
Thin green line – entry price to buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line – the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price to sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line – the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, following the overbought and oversold zones is important.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market should be careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before releasing important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your deposit without placing stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember that you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above for successful trading. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.