According to preliminary estimates, services PMI in the United States increased to 50.80 points in November from 50.60 points in October of 2023, while a decrease to 50.5 points was expected. Due to this, the composite business activity index remained at the same level, although it was expected to decrease from 50.7 points to 50.6 points. However, the manufacturing index, instead of remaining unchanged, decreased from 50.0 points to 49.4 points. This indicates that the American industry is at best starting to stagnate. This conclusion suggests that the overall economy is gradually sliding into a recession, which seemed to have been avoided. It turns out that the economic downturn is starting, but a bit later than expected. In the conditions of an economic downturn, the Federal Reserve will likely start stimulating the economy by reducing interest rates. So, it's not surprising that the dollar is going down again. Considering that today's economic calendar is completely empty, this trend may well continue.
The GBP/USD pair has extended the current upward cycle. As a result, the quote rose above the 1.2600 level, indicating a gradual process of recovering the value of the British currency relative to the decline in the period from July to September.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, indicating that the market sentiment remained bullish in the medium term. The indicator is in the overbought territory, slightly above the level of 70. It is worth noting that this is a critical overbought level, and the quote may continue to rise.
On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the upward cycle.
OutlookFurther growth could push the price towards the resistance level of 1.2700. This movement will not only lead to an increase in buying volumes but also indicate the possibility of a move towards the local high set in July.
The comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term, medium-term and intraday periods points to the uptrend.