The economic calendar for reports is entirely empty on Monday. There is not a single report even of secondary importance. Thus, today we expect a drop in volatility and weak movements. There can be exceptions, but the probability is also low.
Analysis of fundamental events:From Monday's fundamental events, we can highlight the speeches by European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos, and Federal Reserve official Lisa Cook. However, these events have an extremely low probability of causing a market reaction. Therefore, we expect the pair to fall regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic background, but at the same time, we shouldn't expect any significant movement.
In our opinion, there won't be any interesting events on Monday. Therefore, we don't expect strong movements, and even movements of moderate strength.
Basic rules of a trading system:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.
2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.
3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, post which all open trades should be manually closed.
5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trend line or trend channel.
6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.
How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.
The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.
Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.
Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.