Trade analysis and tips for trading the European currency
The seller's attempts failed. The test of the price at 1.0624 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. However, the pair never dropped as expected, resulting in losses being incurred. Today, all attention will be focused on an important report on the US labor market, which will determine the pair's further direction. An increase in the number of non-farm payrolls and a decrease in the US unemployment rate will likely push the trading instrument down, limiting the upward trend of the euro. If the data indicate a sharp increase in labor market problems and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index drops more than economists' forecasts, the dollar is expected to weaken, leading to an upward movement of the pair. As for intraday prospects, I will act based on the implementation of scenario #1.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0658 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0723. I recommend exiting the market at 1.0723 and selling the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. The euro's rise can be expected today to continue the trend after weak US labor market data and the speeches of Federal Reserve representatives. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and has just started rising from it.
Scenario #2: You can also buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0621 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Expect an increase to the opposite levels of 1.0658 and 1.0723.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: You can sell the euro after the price reaches the level of 1.0621 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0568, where I recommend exiting the market and buying the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point movement in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will increase in the event of good data, which may lead to a larger downward correction at the end of the week. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and has just started its decline from it.
Scenario #2: You can also sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0658 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. Expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.0621 and 1.0568.
On the chart:
Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick green line - the expected price where you can place Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick red line - the expected price where you can place Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making trading decisions. It is better to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.