Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the price at 150.32 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move upwards from the zero mark. This confirmed the correct entry point for long positions in the continuation of the uptrend. As a result, the pair rose by more than 60 points. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan announced that it would apply a more flexible approach to controlling the yield of 10-year government bonds, indicating a departure from the previous commitment to daily bond purchases at 1%. However, this was not enough for traders, which led to further selling of the Japanese yen against the US dollar. Demand for the dollar strengthened in the second half of the day after strong US statistics were released. So far, there has been no intervention by the Japanese regulator at all. This is due to today's meeting of the US Federal Reserve, where interest rates may remain unchanged, affecting the USD/JPY pair. Apparently, new interventions can be expected after the market's reaction to the committee's meeting. As for intraday prospects, I will act based on the implementation of scenario #1.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: You can buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 151.40 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the level of 152.17 (thicker green line on the chart). I recommend exiting positions around 152.17 and opening sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35-point movement in the opposite direction from the level). Count on the pair's rise today after strong US statistics and the aggressive policy of the Federal Reserve in continuation of the bullish trend. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: You can also buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 151.13 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upward. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 151.40 and 152.17.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: You can sell USD/JPY today only after the price updates to the level of 151.13 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decrease in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 150.49, where I recommend exiting the sales and immediately opening purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point movement in the opposite direction from the level). Any central bank intervention will lead to an instant sell-off of the pair. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: You can also sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 151.40 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 151.13 and 150.49.
On the chart:
Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line – the presumed price at which you can place Take Profit or independently secure profits since further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line – the presumed price at which you can place Take Profit or independently secure profits since further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. It's crucial to use overbought and oversold zones as a guide when entering the market.
Important. Novice traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.