As of this writing, USD/CAD was trading near the level of 1.3777, in close proximity to a local high (since the end of March this year) and the level of 1.3785, reached earlier this month.
Moreover, the pair is showing an upward trend, trading within the medium-term—above the support level of 1.3460 (200 EMA on the daily chart), long-term—above the support level of 1.3145 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), and the global—above the support level of 1.2700 (200 EMA on the monthly chart), all indicative of bullish markets. It is also receiving support from fundamental factors.
Today, at 14:00 (GMT), 15:00, and 20:35, an increase in volatility in the Canadian and American dollar quotes is expected due to important events, which, in turn, should increase the volatility in the USD/CAD pair.
In the event of a continued rise in USD/CAD, a break above the level of 1.3785 will signal the accumulation of long positions in the pair with targets at local resistance levels of 1.3810, 1.3860, 1.3900.
In an alternative scenario, USD/CAD will resume its decline. The first signal for selling will be a break below today's low of 1.3713 and the local support level at 1.3700, with confirmation coming from a break of the important short-term support level of 1.3690 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart). Downside targets include support levels at 1.3614 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 1.3600, and 1.3585 (50 EMA on the daily chart).
If this scenario continues to develop, a break of key support levels at 1.3490 (144 EMA on the daily chart), 1.3460 (200 EMA on the daily chart), and 1.3450 (23.6% Fibonacci level of the correction wave from 0.9700 to 1.4600 reached in June 2016) will return USD/CAD to the medium-term bearish market zone, and a break of support levels at 1.3210 (144 EMA on the weekly chart) and 1.3145 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) will bring it back into the long-term bearish market zone, making short positions preferable.
Support levels: 1.3713, 1.3700, 1.3690, 1.3670, 1.3614, 1.3600, 1.3585, 1.3500, 1.3490, 1.3460, 1.3450, 1.3400
Resistance levels: 1.3785, 1.3810, 1.3860, 1.3900, 1.3970, 1.4000