Last Friday, the pair formed several entry signals. Let's see what happened on the 5-minute chart. In my morning review, I mentioned the level of 1.2186 as a possible entry point. The pair breached the 1.2186 level, but there was no retest, so it was not possible to get a suitable entry point. In the afternoon, several false breakouts at 1.2216 produced sell signals, which resulted in a decline of more than 100 pips. Buying on a false breakout from 1.2108 and a good entry point made it possible for traders to take another 50 pips.
For long positions on GBP/USD:
Strong US labor market data was not enough for the bears to feel "at ease" again. The bulls quickly regained control of the market so today they have a good chance of extending the upward correction. In the absence of economic reports, it's best to act around the new support at 1.2175, formed at the end of last Friday. Slightly above this level, we have the moving averages that favor the bulls. A false breakout at 1.2175 will serve as an entry point for long positions allowing the price to reach the nearest resistance at 1.2222, which was formed today. A breakout and stabilization above this range might extend the bullish correction, bolstering buyers' confidence. This would signal the opening of long positions targeting 1.2268 - a new monthly high. The ultimate target would be the 1.2327 area where I'd be looking to take profits. If the pair declines to 1.2175 without buyer activity, and most likely that will be the case, as I expect the pair to trade more in the sideways channel, bearish pressure on the pound will likely return, opening the path to a low of 1.2141. A false breakout here would signal long entries. I plan to instantly buy GBP/USD on a bounce from the 1.2108 low, aiming for a daily intraday correction of 30-35 pips.
For short positions on GBP/USD:
The bears should guard the nearest resistance at 1.2222. An ideal scenario would be a false breakout at this level, generating a sell signal with a movement towards the support level at 1.2175 that was formed at the end of last Friday. Breaching this level and subsequently retesting it from below would strike a significant blow to the bulls, providing a window to target support at 1.2141. The more distant target will be 1.2108, where I'd be taking profits, as large buyers were active at this mark on Friday. If GBP/USD grows and there are no bears at 1.2222, the demand for the pound will return, which will give the bulls a chance to extend the upward correction. In this case, I'd postpone short positions until a false breakout at 1.2268 occurs. If there is no downward movement there, I'd sell the pound on an immediate rebound from 1.2327, aiming for a downward correction of 30-35 pips.
COT report:
The COT (Commitment of Traders) report for September 26 logged a decrease in long positions and a very large increase in short positions. It means there are fewer and fewer buyers of the pound sterling, especially after downbeat UK GDP data. The UK economic growth is expected to slow down significantly in the 3rd quarter. No wonder, the British pound is actively falling against the US dollar. The latest COT report said long non-commercial positions fell by 345 to 84,750, while short non-commercial positions increased by 17,669 to 69,081. As a result, the spread between long and short positions narrowed by 702. The weekly price dipped and stood at 1.2162 against 1.2390.
Indicator signals:
Moving Averages
Trading above the 30- and 50-day moving averages indicates that buyers are trying to extend the upward correction.
Please note that the time period and levels of the moving averages are analyzed only for the H1 chart, which differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.
Bollinger Bands
If the pair declines, the lower band of the indicator near 1.2141 will act as support.
Description of indicators:
• A moving average of a 50-day period determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in yellow on the chart;
• A moving average of a 30-day period determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in green on the chart;
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Fast EMA with a 12-day period; Slow EMA with a 26-day period. SMA with a 9-day period;
• Bollinger Bands: 20-day period;
• Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements;
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total number of long positions opened by non-commercial traders;
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total number of short positions opened by non-commercial traders;
• The non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.