Buoyed by the hawkish Federal Reserve forecast, dollar trades near a six-month high, the key factor on EUR/USD's likely decline.
Currently, the pair fluctuates within a narrow range, showing signs of an impending price drop.
Not only did the US central bank confirm last week that interest rates will remain high for a considerable period, but also cautioned that persistent inflation will prompt rates to be raised at least once more this year. Additionally, two rate cuts will occur in 2024 instead of four, supporting the rise in US Treasury bond yields.
The yield on two-year government bonds has remained consistently near its highest level since 2006, while the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds moves around a 16-year high. This happened due to concerns about a real estate crisis in China.
As for euro, it fell under pressure from the European Central Bank's decision on the dovish interest rate taken last Thursday. The ECB also lowered its growth forecasts for the Consumer Price Index and GDP for 2024 and 2025, assuming that the 14-month cycle of monetary policy tightening already peaked.
The Eurozone PMI index published on Friday also indicated that the struggling manufacturing sector continued to exert pressure on economic growth in September, thereby fueling speculation about a possible GDP contraction in the second half of the year. This confirms market expectations that further rate hikes may not happen, increasing the prospects of further depreciation of EUR/USD.
The empty macroeconomic calendar in the US today will leave dollar in the hands of US bond yields.