The focus of traders monitoring the dynamics of the New Zealand and American dollars today is on the Federal Reserve meeting and fresh GDP data from New Zealand.
Weak macroeconomic statistics from China are putting downward pressure on the NZD and the NZD/USD pair, which has been trading at its lows since November 2022.
The pair needs an additional catalyst to break through one of the levels in the range formed over the past few days between 0.5945 and 0.5860 and resume movement in one direction or the other.
Since the pair is trading in a bearish market, with the medium-term below the 0.6145 resistance level (200 EMA on the daily chart) and the long-term below the resistance levels of 0.6400 (144 EMA on the weekly chart) and 0.6480 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), it is more logical to expect a break below the lower boundary of the range and the support level of 0.5860, and a continuation of the downward trend.
In an alternative scenario, a signal for the resumption of long positions could be a break above the 0.5945 resistance level, with the prospect of rising to the 0.6000 resistance level (50 EMA on the daily chart). Given the overall downward trend of the pair, a rise above the 0.6000 resistance level is currently unlikely.
In the main scenario, we expect a resumption of the decline, and the "fastest" signal for new short positions could be a break of the local support level at 0.5890.
Support levels: 0.5900, 0.5890, 0.5860, 0.5800, 0.5700, 0.5600, 0.5565, 0.5510
Resistance levels: 0.5910, 0.5945, 0.5973, 0.6000, 0.6060, 0.6110, 0.6145, 0.6200, 0.6258, 0.6310, 0.6400, 0.6488, 0.6500, 0.6510