USD/CAD dynamics scenarios on September 6, 2023

Economists believe that, despite high inflation, the Bank of Canada will pause its interest rate hikes at its meeting on Wednesday, considering the risks of the national economy sliding into a recession.

Meanwhile, against the backdrop of a strengthening U.S. dollar, USD/CAD has been rising since mid-July, and at the beginning of today's European trading session, the pair reached its highest point since March 29, at the level of 1.3671.

Overall, the pair maintains a positive momentum, trading in the zone of both the long-term (above the key support level of 1.2690) and medium-term (above the key support level of 1.3395) bullish markets.

A break above the said levels could signal an increase in long positions on USD/CAD. The nearest growth targets are located at local resistance levels 1.3700, 1.3800, and 1.3860.

In an alternative scenario, USD/CAD could resume its decline. The first signal for selling would be a break below today's low at 1.3626 and the support level of 1.3624 (200 EMA on the 15-minute chart), with confirmation coming from breaking through the important short-term support level of 1.3582 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart).

The targets of the downward correction are the local support level of 1.3500 and 1.3474 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart).

Further decline and a break below key support levels at 1.3395 (200 EMA on the daily chart) and 1.3380 (50 EMA on the weekly chart) will bring USD/CAD into the zone of the medium-term bearish market, and breaking through the support levels at 1.3170 and 1.3115 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) will place it in the zone of the long-term bearish market, making short positions preferable.

Support levels: 1.3626, 1.3624, 1.3600, 1.3582, 1.3500, 1.3474, 1.3450, 1.3395, 1.3380, 1.3320, 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3170, 1.3115

Resistance levels: 1.3671, 1.3700, 1.3810, 1.3860, 1.3900, 1.3970, 1.4000