This week, the markets received a lot of information. Let's briefly recall. Germany just released inflation and unemployment figures, while the eurozone published its inflation data. Meanwhile, the US has released reports on GDP, ADP, JOLTs, personal income and spending, as well as unemployment benefit claims. And this is far from the complete list; these are just the most influential reports. This information led to a significant drop in demand for the dollar, but by Thursday, it didn't seem like the dollar had fallen too much. I have already mentioned that the upward correction waves for both instruments look unconvincing and could be internal waves of the first downward waves on a larger scale. Friday should clarify how things stand.
On Friday, the US will publish reports on unemployment, wages, and the labor market. As a bonus, the ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector, which is quite important, will also be released. And I consider these reports much more important than those that were already released this week. For the dollar, the "D-Day" is coming. If the key reports turn out to be weak, the dollar will fall once again, and the corrective wave will continue. If the key reports turn out to be strong, all of the quote's gains this week will most likely be interpreted as an internal wave in the downtrend. However, there might be a situation where some reports will turn out to be better than expected, and some worse...
I believe that the key report will be the Nonfarm Payrolls, but only in conjunction with unemployment. The market will first look at the payrolls and then at unemployment. If unemployment is in the deviation range of +0.1-0.1%, then it's not a big deal; payrolls will be the main focus. If unemployment deviates more significantly, then payrolls might take a backseat. Undoubtedly, it's impossible to predict this in advance, so we'll have to observe and react quickly.
I think that there's a higher probability of seeing strong figures than seeing weak ones. In any case, I expect to see the progress of the downward segments of the trend. Either on Friday, next week, or in a week.
Based on the conducted analysis, I came to the conclusion that the upward wave pattern is complete. I still believe that targets in the 1.0500-1.0600 range are quite realistic, and with these targets in mind, I advise selling the instrument. The a-b-c structure appears complete and convincing. Therefore, I advise selling the instrument with targets set around the 1.0788 and 1.0637 marks. Failure to break through the 1.0788 mark caused quotes to retreat from the lows it reached, probably within wave b. As a result, I advise new short positions after this wave's construction has ended.
The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline within the downward segment of the trend. There is a risk of completing the current downward wave if it is d, and not 1. In this case, the construction of wave 5 might begin from the current marks. But in my opinion, we are currently witnessing the construction of the second wave within the new downward segment of the trend. By the end of the week, the demand for the dollar will depend on the news background from the US; based on these reports, we can form a conclusion about the possible completion of the second wave. Short positions should be considered after that.