Early in the American session, the Euro is trading above the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA. In the H4 chart, we can see that EUR/USD is trading within a bearish trend channel, forming since December 26. The instrument is about to break its channel.
During the European session, the euro tried to break this channel and in turn, break the 200 EMA but could not achieve it. If the euro gains momentum, breaks, and consolidates above 1.0913 in the next few hours, it will be seen as an opportunity to buy with targets at 2/8 Murray located at 1.0986 and finally, at 3/8 Murray located at 1.1108.
On the contrary, we observe a secondary uptrend channel, forming within the bearish channel since January 16. In case the euro falls below this channel, breaks, and consolidates below 1.0879 (21 SMA), we could see bearish acceleration and EUR/USD could fall around 1.0743 (0/8 Murray). Finally, it could reach the bottom of the downtrend channel.
The market sentiment report shows that there are 50.35% of traders who are buying the euro. This statistic is mixed since the bearish and bullish forces are very balanced. Therefore, a break of the bearish trend channel above 1.09 could define the trend in the short term.
Since January 9, the eagle indicator has been giving a positive signal. So, if the euro consolidates above 1.0913 in the coming days, we could expect a recovery if EUR/USD could reach the psychological level of 1.10.