As anticipated, Bitcoin resumed its downward movement in the past day. After reaching the $31,000 level, we have observed a sideways movement for several months. First, the flat was seen below the $31,000 level, then a couple thousand dollars lower, and now the price has gone even lower. The second sideways channel in the 4-hour timeframe has also been abandoned, increasing the chances of a further drop. On the daily timeframe, the cryptocurrency has already touched the Senkou Span B line, which could become an insurmountable barrier. Still, we don't see any factors that could halt Bitcoin's decline. However, as always, we should be prepared for any developments. A strong rebound from the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud could signal a buying opportunity. But it would be preferable for this signal to be confirmed within the 4-hour timeframe.
As Bitcoin continues to correct, Mark Yusko, the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, has stated that Bitcoin will be worth $150,000 per coin next year. As justification for his opinion, Yusko cited the upcoming halving and SEC approval of a Bitcoin ETF, which have yet to occur. According to Yusko, SEC approval of a Bitcoin ETF alone could drive Bitcoin to $100,000. The fact that a similar instrument has already been launched in Europe and that Bitcoin is falling needs to be considered. Yusko also noted that the fair value of Bitcoin at the moment is $55,000 without explaining why. In his opinion, each new halving should result in a tenfold increase in Bitcoin's value.
Our opinion is as follows. Bitcoin may resume forming a "bullish" trend because the trend line on the 24-hour timeframe is still relevant. The price may rebound from it or the Senkou Span B line, leading to new growth. However, halving is not necessarily a driver for even a twofold increase, and the expected easing of the Fed's monetary policy has already been priced. The global financial crisis predicted by Robert Kiyosaki is mere coffee-ground fortune-telling. You can claim it is about to happen, and you might guess right. So far, we don't see strong fundamental factors supporting Bitcoin. The SEC has already indicated that a decision on the Bitcoin ETF will be postponed to next year.
In the 24-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has rebounded again from the $31,000 level and begun a stronger downturn. As we mentioned earlier, the minimum target for the fall is the ascending trend line, which currently lies around the $27,000 level. This should be the target for selling the cryptocurrency until strong buy signals are received. The Senkou Span B line is strong, and a rebound may follow.