Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD
The test of 1.1068 on Wednesday afternoon, coinciding with the drop of the MACD line from zero, prompted a sell signal that should have resulted in a price decrease. However, a sharp downward movement did not occur in the pair.
Reports related to private sector lending and the M3 money supply did not have any impact on euro, unlike the decision of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. EUR/USD rose after the committee meeting, as policymakers noted that all future changes would be strictly based on new statistics. Since inflation in the US actively decreases, there may not be any further rate hikes.
The ECB's decision on rates lies ahead, followed by statements from ECB President Christine Lagarde. A wait-and-see approach, also based on new data, could weaken euro, leading to a decline in the pair. Conversely, an aggressive stance will strengthen euro's position.
For long positions:
Buy when euro hits 1.1108 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1144. Bullish traders will attempt to reenter the market if the forecasts for further interest rate increases in the eurozone remain intact. However, before buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starting to rise from it.
Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.1078, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1108 and 1.1144.
For short positions:
Sell when euro reaches 1.1078 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1039. Pressure will increase in the event of a softer monetary policy stance by the ECB. However, ensure that when selling, the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it.
Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.1108, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1078 and 1.1039.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD
Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD
Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.