EUR/USD:
Yesterday, due to discrepancies in the PMIs between Germany and the United States, the euro weakened by 0.08% (other world currencies strengthened, with the Australian dollar leading gains at 0.72%). Today, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%. Will the euro fall if there is still interest in risk on other markets? If this rate hike has not been factored into prices, investors might have still considered it. As a result, it could lead to the opposite effect – the euro will rise following the stock market. Speaking of the stock market (S&P 500), according to our calculations, it may experience a medium- or long-term downturn either in a week or in the week of the September Fed meeting (September 19-20), which is covered in today's review "When will the stock market fall?".
On the daily chart, a possible reversal sign for the euro is the signal line of the Marlin oscillator, indicating an intention to turn upwards from the border of the downtrend territory. If the price breaks below the nearest support level at 1.1007, the target will be 1.0940. The next target is 1.0910, where the MACD line is approaching. The bullish scenario will come into play if the price moves above 1.1092, aiming for 1.1175.
On the four-hour chart, the MACD line is near the 1.1175 target. Overcoming this level will indicate the price's intention to rise in the medium-term.
The Marlin oscillator persistently rises against the exchange rate's fall. It remains a short distance away from entering the positive area. However, in the event of a sharp price decline, the oscillator will follow suit, and the convergence will remain unfulfilled. We are waiting for the Fed's decision on interest rates.