In December, the United Kingdom's business sector witnessed its quickest growth in half a year. The S&P Global/CIPS flash UK PMI composite output index, a crucial measure of business health, climbed to 51.7 from November's 50.7. This growth marks the highest rate since June. The services sector, crucial for the UK economy, showed a significant increase, reaching 52.7 in December, up from 50.9 in November. However, manufacturing activity presented a contrasting picture, declining for the tenth consecutive month to 46.4, a drop from 47.2 in November.
A Closer Look at the Sectors: Services Versus Manufacturing
The divergence between services and manufacturing sectors is noteworthy. The services sector's growth underscores its resilience and adaptability in uncertain economic times. In contrast, the manufacturing sector's continued downturn raises concerns about industrial health and its future trajectory.
Economic Implications: Understanding the PMI's Message
Chris Williamson from S&P Global Market Intelligence remarks, "The UK economy continues to dodge recession, with growth picking up some momentum at the end of the year." This suggests a stabilization in the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the fourth quarter. However, the PMI also indicated rising input costs, especially in the services sector, hinting at ongoing wage price pressures. These developments are likely to influence the Bank of England's policy decisions, especially regarding interest rates. The Bank kept rates steady last Thursday, with expectations growing that it might be the last major central bank to consider rate cuts in 2024.
Forex Market Implications: What Traders Should Watch
For forex traders, these insights are crucial. The strength of the services sector may buoy the British Pound (GBP), while weaknesses in manufacturing could exert opposite pressures. Traders should monitor the Bank of England's policy shifts, especially concerning interest rates, as these directly impact currency values.
Practical Trading Insights:
Monitor GBP Movements: Given the UK's economic landscape, staying informed about the GBP's performance against other major currencies is vital.Watch for BoE Announcements: Policy changes or hints from the Bank of England can significantly influence market dynamics.Diversify: Considering the contrasting health of the services and manufacturing sectors, diversifying trades across different sectors could mitigate risks.Stay Informed: Regularly update your knowledge about global economic trends, as they can influence local market conditions.Technical Market Outlook:The GBP/USD pair has made a local low at the level of 1.2627 and reversed sharply back above the short-term trend line resistance. The market hit the 50 MA on the H4 time frame chart located at the level of 1.2674 and bulls are still pushing for more. The next target for bulls is located at the level of 1.2702, which is the intraday technical resistance.
The momentum on the H4 time frame chart remains positive after the neutral level of fifty had been tested yesterday. The position of the moving averages and the RSI level implies a cautiously bullish outlook, but warrants close observation for confirmation.
Weekly Pivot Points:WR3 - 1.2905
WR2 - 1.2815
WR1 - 1.2682
Weekly Pivot - 1.2592
WS1 - 1.2459
WS2 - 1.2369
WS3 - 1.2236
Trading Outlook:The weekly time frame chart reveals a decisive Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern materializing amid the breakout beyond the 1.2340 level, signaling the dominance of bullish sentiment as prices continue to climb. Currently, the market is trading above the 50-week moving average (WMA) and is on course towards the 100 WMA positioned at 1.2504. Conversely, a sustained breakout below the critical long-term technical support at 1.1802 significantly heightens the probability of a substantial downward movement, potentially targeting the level of 1.1494.
GBP/USD H1 Intraday Indicator Signals:- 15 out of 21 technical indicators are showing Buy signal, 5 indicators are Neutral and 1 shows a Sell signal
- 14 out of 18 moving averages are showing Buy signal, 4 moving averages shows a Sell signal
Sentiment Scoreboard:The general sentiment on the scoreboard is bullish (55% vs.45% bears). Last week sentiment remains bullish as well (55% bulls vs.45% bears) while the last three days sentiment is shifted to bullish (58% bulls vs.42% bears).