Outlook for GBP/USD on July 21. COT report. GBP retains downward correction

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair maintained its downward correction. There were no important reports or events in the UK or the US on Thursday. The US released two reports but they were of the least importance However, the initial jobless claims data turned out to be better than forecasts. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index was negative. Therefore, it is hard to say that the US dollar grew amid the fundamental background. The pair decreased at night. Thus, the reasons for its decline are technical. The pound sterling just continues the long-awaited correction after a strong and prolonged rally. I believe that it does not need fundamental reasons to maintain it.

Yesterday, the trading signals were unclear. The pair encountered two resistance levels when declining. In both cases, it rebounded from them, giving buy signals, and then broke through them, providing sell signals. Therefore, both buy signals turned out to be false and both sell signals turned out to be correct. It was also hard to determine the beginning of the movement as there were no pivot levels or lines in that area. As a result, two positions turned out to be unprofitable, and two profitable. Traders did not make a profit or incur losses.

According to the latest report, the non-commercial group of traders opened 15,200 long positions and 7,400 short ones. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders rose by 7,800 positions in a week. It continued to rise. The net position has been steadily growing over the past 10 months as well as the pound sterling. Now, the net position has advanced markedly. This is why the pair will hardly maintain its bullish momentum. I believe that a long and protracted downward movement should begin. COT reports signal a slight growth of the British currency but it will not be able to rise in the long term. There are no drivers for opening new long positions. However, there are no technical signals for short positions yet.

The British currency has already grown by a total of 2,800 pips. Without a downward correction, the continuation of the uptrend will be illogical. The Non-commercial group of traders has opened 111,600 long positions and 53,600 short ones. I remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the pound sterling but speculators continue to buy because the pair is growing. Usually, BTC shows such movements.

On the 1H timeframe, the pound/dollar pair maintains an upward trend. It declined below both lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which signals a correction. The market sentiment has not completely changed to bearish as the ascending trend line remains relevant. Thus, the pair can resume growth at any moment. Nevertheless, the pound sterling began to fall. It has been decreasing for several days. Therefore, a steady downtrend is likely to start.

On July 21, traders should pay attention to the following key levels: 1.2693, 1.2762, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3119, 1.3175, 1.3222, 1.3273. Senkou Span B (1.2906) and Kijun-sen (1.2979) T lines can also provide signals, e.g. rebounds and breakout of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss orders at the breakeven level when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are support and resistance levels that can be used to lock in profits.

The UK retail sales report is on tap on Friday. It is unlikely to trigger volatility. Trading floors in the US will be open for half a day. The pound sterling may decline against the backdrop of the continuing downtrend.

Description of the chart:

Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals;

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals;

Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals;

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns;

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders;

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.