The test of 1.1258, coinciding with the rise of the MACD line from zero, prompted a buy signal that led to a price increase of around 15 pips. However, pressure returned shortly after.
Data on US retail sales lies ahead, and an increase in the indicator will likely result in growth in dollar demand, leading to a decline in EUR/USD. The market will also be influenced by reports on changes in industrial production volume and changes in manufacturing production volume. Meanwhile, the speech by FOMC member Michael S. Barr will be of interest in terms of the Federal Reserve's stance on future interest rate policy, taking into account the existing data on inflation and the labor market.
For long positions:
Buy when euro hits 1.1258 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1296. Growth could occur, but it will only be possible after weak US statistics and a sharp decline in retail sales. Nevertheless, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it.
Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.1230, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1258 and 1.1296.
For short positions:
Sell when euro reaches 1.1230 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1189. Pressure will increase in the case of good indicators from the US manufacturing index and retail sales for June. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it.
Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.1258, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1230 and 1.1189.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD
Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD
Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.