Early in the American session, the euro (EUR/USD) is trading around 1.0768, near the 200 EMA, and above the 4/8 Murray. This level is key for the euro because it is above strong support and around the moving average which protects the instrument against a fall.
According to the daily chart, if the euro consolidates above 1.0740 in the coming days, we could expect it to continue rising and the price could reach 1.0864 and even the 21 SMA around 1.0889.
On the daily chart, we can see that the euro is trading within a downtrend channel formed since November 22nd. There will likely be a sharp break above this channel and then, we could expect a recovery of the euro. So, EUR/USD could even reach the psychological level of 1.10.
On the contrary, with a daily close below 1.0740, we could expect a continuation of the downward movement and the euro could fall towards 3/8 Murray located at 1.0620. The instrument could accelerate its fall towards 2/8 Murray around the psychological level of 1.05.
The market sentiment report shows that there are 41.77% of traders who are selling the euro. It means that if this percentage increases, we could expect a recovery of EUR/USD and it could reach 1.09.
Our trading plan for the next hours is to buy the EUR/USD pair above 1.0762. In case there is a technical rebound towards 1.0742, this move could also be seen as a signal to buy with targets 1.08, 1.0864, and 1.0889 (21 SMA).