Now this really does look like speculation. One could even say unnecessary speculation. A number of Federal Reserve officials have clearly stated that they will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation to 2.0%. And after such statements, the dollar should have been actively growing, as this means that the US central bank may not be limited to two more rate hikes promised by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. But instead, the USD was actively getting weaker. It seems as if a number of investors, quite large ones at that, as only they have such resources, are simply pushing the market as far in the opposite direction as possible, so that the subsequent correction is as large as possible. Of course, this can only be done for the purpose of maximizing their own profits. But these are just assumptions. What is certain for sure, however, is that the broad US dollar weakness was completely illogical.
Nevertheless, the pair might still enter a correction today. The market forecasts an increase in the UK unemployment rate from 3.8% to 3.9%. If we compare this to the US jobless rate that has decreased, then we can arrive at the conclusion that the UK's situation looks rather bleak and this will certainly not give the pound any optimism.
In terms of speculative activity, the GBP/USD pair has updated the peak of the medium-term trend. As a result, the volume of long positions increased, which kept the price above the value of 1.2850.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI is hovering in the upper area of the indicator, which points to the growth in the volume of long positions.
On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which corresponds to the current upward cycle.
OutlookIn this situation, there is already a signal of the British currency's overbought status, which allows for a correction. However, in case the current movement persists, the price may reach the psychological level of 1.3000.
The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term and intraday periods, indicators are providing an upward signal.