Trading plan for EUR/USD on July 3. Simple tips for beginners

The EUR/USD pair surged on Friday, which is difficult to explain from a fundamental and macroeconomic perspective. Despite several interesting events and reports throughout Friday, none of them explicitly supported the euro or weighed on the dollar. It started with the eurozone inflation report, which can be interpreted in different ways. The main inflation indicator slowed down as estimated, but core inflation edged higher. Therefore, it remains challenging to draw a definitive conclusion about the eurozone's inflation outlook: whether it is declining or increasing.

To be fair, the euro initially declined after the release of this report, but it moved higher in the early US trading and surged during the release of US data. However, the reports were not particularly impactful, as most of them were secondary and their values largely aligned with the forecasts.

Several trading signals materialized on the 5-minute chart. Initially, the pair consolidated below the 1.0857-1.0867 area but managed to move in the right direction by only 15 pips. Therefore, it was possible to set a breakeven stop loss but not to secure profits. At the beginning of US trading, the pair consolidated above the aforementioned area, producing a buy signal. You should have executed this signal, and the price subsequently rose towards the 1.0918-1.0933 area, where long positions could be closed. The profit amounted to approximately 45 pips.

On the 30M chart, the pair has secured a position below the ascending channel, so the trend has formally switched to a downward one. A descending trendline has also formed, and the price is currently near it. We believe that there's a high chance that the pair will bounce from this trendline and fall. The euro traded higher on Friday.

The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0733, 1.0761, 1.0803, 1.0857-1.0867, 1.0918-1.0918, 1.0971-1.0977, 1.1038, 1.1091, 1.1132. A stop loss can be set at a breakeven point as soon as the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. On Monday, PMIs in the manufacturing sectors will be published in the eurozone and the US. You should pay attention to the ISM index in the US, since it is important.

1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.

3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.

4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.

5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.

Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.

Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.