The Australian dollar reacted positively to the unexpected decision of the RBA to raise the interest rate at the June meeting.
From the 0.6500 mark, the price rose by 400 points to the local resistance level of 0.6900 (this mark also coincides with the upper boundary of the newly formed downward channel on the weekly chart), continuing the upward correction that started at the beginning of the month.
However, subsequently, especially after the concluded FOMC meeting on June 14, AUD/USD sharply declined from the 0.6900 mark, consistently breaking through three important medium-term support levels: 0.6755 (200 EMA on the daily chart), 0.6725 (144 EMA on the daily chart), 0.6690 (50 EMA on the daily chart).
This week, the price tested the local support level of 0.6600. A break of the local support level at 0.6565 will confirm the revival of the long-term downward dynamics of AUD/USD, sending the pair towards the lower boundary of the aforementioned downward channel, which is currently near the local lows (since April 2020) and the levels of 0.6200, 0.6285.
Below the key resistance levels of 0.7060 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) and 0.7040 (50 EMA on the monthly chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the correction wave from 0.9500 to 0.5510), AUD/USD remains in the zone of the long-term bearish market, and below the resistance levels of 0.6755 and 0.6725, in the zone of the medium-term bearish market, which makes short positions preferable in the current situation.
Technical indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart also favor sellers.
In an alternative scenario, the first signal for the resumption of long positions may be a break of yesterday's intraday high at 0.6640, and the confirming signal would be a break of the short-term resistance levels at 0.6681 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) and 0.6690 (50 EMA on the daily chart and 200 EMA on the 4-hour chart).
A breakout of the key resistance level at 0.6755 and the resistance level at 0.6780 (50 EMA on the weekly chart) will open the way for further growth towards the key resistance levels at 0.6975 (144 EMA on the weekly chart), 0.7040, 0.7060, which separate the long-term bearish market from the bullish one.
Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6565, 0.6500, 0.6455, 0.6390, 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170
Resistance levels: 0.6640, 0.6681, 0.6690, 0.6700, 0.6725, 0.6755, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6900, 0.6975, 0.7000, 0.7040, 0.7060