Hodlers Hold BTC: Bullish Rally Continues?

Over the past week, the situation on the crypto market has changed dramatically in the bullish direction. The long and sluggish consolidation pause has ended, and Bitcoin has resumed its upward movement. This has been facilitated by both positive news background and prolonged accumulation of bullish volumes by investors.

As a result, the market has recovered from the May decline, and by the end of June, Bitcoin is trading near the $30.5k level. Considering the prolonged and agonizing period BTC spent in the $25k–$26.5k range, an intermediate profit-taking stage could have been expected. As of June 27, investors do not see reasons to sell their cryptocurrency holdings, which may indicate a continued bullish trend.

The foundation of any upward movement of Bitcoin over the past five years has been long-term investors who hold their assets regardless of price movements. This holds true for the current upward movement as well—Glassnode notes that long-term investors continue to hold their BTC holdings.

Another fundamental factor indicating long-term intentions towards Bitcoin is the amount of BTC on exchanges. In the past few weeks, the volume of cryptocurrency on centralized platforms has dropped to 2.27 million, which accounts for 11.7% of all coins in circulation. This is the lowest level since 2017, indicating fundamental confidence in the asset.

CoinShares also reports a significant shift in dynamics after nine weeks of outflows from crypto funds. The weekly report on financial flows into crypto products showed an inflow of $199 million, the highest weekly inflow of funds into the crypto market since July 2022.

Indeed, long-term investors prefer to continue holding their BTC reserves. However, CryptoQuant reports a sharp increase in BTC coins on exchanges in the past few days. This suggests that avoiding local profit-taking will not be possible, and therefore, the pressure on the price of BTC will increase.

Bitcoin reached a local peak at the $31.5k mark and entered a consolidation phase. This is partly due to increased seller activity and local profit-taking. On the other hand, the realization of the bullish impulse has completed, and trading volumes in the Bitcoin market have significantly declined to $15 billion compared to $30 billion during the bullish movement.

Considering this, the main target for the bulls at this stage is to establish a foothold above the $30k level, which is a key platform for continued upward movement. The bears, on the other hand, have the opposite task, and we have already seen position covering near $30k. As of June 27, there are sufficient bullish volumes to maintain positions.

However, it is important to take into account the psychology of the market crowd, according to which the longer the price stays at a local high, the more people will want to take profits and exit the market. By the end of June, we can see a total dominance of bulls, so it is worth highlighting further targets for the upward movement of BTC.

Among the local resistance levels, the $30.5k–$31k range stands out, where a large order block is concentrated, and the recent price drop to $30k was associated with its trading. Looking at a broader perspective, the $30.5k–$32.3k range is a wide range with significant liquidity volumes. Trading within this range will allow bulls to reach as high as $35.5k.

As for the technical aspect, BTC remains overbought. Key indicators are moving above the green zone and continue to demonstrate bullish signals. This may lead to a deeper correction, which will be exacerbated by profit-taking and the approaching Federal Reserve meeting, where a key interest rate hike is planned.

Bitcoin retains the potential to achieve short-term targets and trade within the range of $30.5k–$32.3k. However, through on-chain metrics and news factors, we are already seeing the first signals of a possible correction. Despite this, the main events will unfold in the range of $30k–$32.3k, and there are all reasons to believe that the upward movement of BTC will resume.