It's not surprising that the market has been practically stagnant for the past few days. No significant economic reports, and lack of news that could influence the situation. However, it's impossible to stand still forever, so the market will inevitably start moving. And it seems that it will happen today. The main driving force will be the UK inflation report. Simply put, there are no other major reports today. The growth rate of consumer prices in the UK is expected to slow down from 8.7% to 8.5%. A firm decline will have a negative impact on the pound and, consequently, on the euro. However, this effect will be short-lived. Tomorrow, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting will take place, and considering the ongoing high inflation rates, it will not only raise the refinancing rate once again but also likely announce further interest rate hikes. This is a significant factor for the pound's growth and, along with it, the euro. Investors may start factoring in this scenario as early as today.
The EUR/USD pair, during the correction, returned to the level of 1.0900 and entered a stagnation phase. There are no significant changes observed on the chart, and the uptrend persists, with a correction cycle forming within its structure.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which points to bullish sentiment.
On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are directed upward, corresponding to the ongoing upward cycle in the market. The lines are not intertwined.
OutlookWe expect an upward trajectory once the price returns above the 1.0950 level. In this case, there is a potential for the euro to rise towards the upper area of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050. As for the bearish scenario, for a subsequent correction, it is necessary to keep the exchange rate below the 1.0900 level.
The comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods indicates a correction. Meanwhile, in the mid-term period, the indicators are reflecting an upward cycle.