There won't be a lot of macro data on Tuesday, but nearly all of the reports are considered important. The US inflation data is one to highlight. Although the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its monetary tightening cycle and inflation is confidently moving towards the 2% target level, it does not mean that these reports can be ignored. Especially since Fed officials will start monetary policy deliberations today, and the results will be announced tomorrow evening. The inflation report influences the Bank's decisions.
In the European Union, the only notable report for the day is the Consumer Price Index in Germany or the economic sentiment indices for both Germany and the EU as a whole. They may have some impact on the balance between the euro and the dollar, but there will be other events that are much more significant. In the UK, the most important figures are the unemployment rate and the change in the number of unemployment benefit claims. There are good reasons to believe that both indicators will worsen compared to the previous month, which could give the pound grounds for further decline. However, the market is being illogical again, so the movements can be completely random.
Even the report on wages in the UK has some significance because high wage growth rates help curb inflation, which the Bank of England is fighting against, and their meeting is scheduled for next week.
Analysis of fundamental events:Among the fundamental events, the speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stands out. This could be very interesting ahead of the BoE's June 22 interest rate decision. Of course, we can hardly expect Bailey to deliver bold statements or even disclose the central bank's plans, but the market is still eager to understand how long monetary tightening will continue in the UK. There are good reasons to believe that the pound is currently rising based on high market expectations regarding the BoE's interest rate.
General conclusions:There will be plenty of important events on Tuesday, and even secondary reports of the day can influence both currency pairs. However, this does not guarantee strong movements throughout the day, as the reports could turn out to be neutral in terms of their values. Nevertheless, you should be prepared for high volatility and intraday reversals.
Basic trading rules:1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.
3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.
5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.
How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.
MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.
Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.