Anticipating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise the base interest rate on June 14, Wednesday, market participants have been raising gold prices over the past two weeks.
The weekly gold survey by Wall Street analysts and Main Street investors indicates that both groups remain optimistic about the prices of the precious metal for the current week. However, they also show cautious optimism in anticipation of inflation data and the decision of the U.S. Central Bank on monetary policy.
A total of 21 analysts from Wall Street participated in the survey. Among them, nine analysts, or 43%, turned out to be optimistic, two analysts, or 10%, predicted a decline in prices for the current week, and ten analysts, or 48%, remained neutral.
In online polls, 692 votes were cast. Of these, 435 respondents, or 63%, expect gold prices to rise. Another 159, or 23%, anticipate a price decline, while 98 voters, or 14%, remain neutral.
Despite the bullish sentiment prevailing in the market, retail investors do not expect prices to exceed $2,000. Instead, they anticipate an average price of $1,985 per ounce.
Additionally, despite the current market waiting for a pause from the Fed, doubts have arisen as aggressive actions by the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia have raised concerns.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 71.2% probability that the Fed will not raise the base interest rate at the June FOMC meeting. And there is only a 28.8% probability that they will still raise it.
However, according to the CME probability indicator, the pause in rate hikes may be short-lived. There is a 53% probability that the Fed will raise the base rate by a quarter percentage point, and a 16.4% probability that they will raise rates by a half percentage point at the July meeting.
On Tuesday, inflation data will be published, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report. This is the preferred index used by the Federal Reserve and the latest inflation report, which the Fed will use in its decision-making on monetary policy.