A new increase in volatility in the quotes of the Canadian dollar and the USD/CAD pair is expected today at 12:30 (GMT), as Statistics Canada releases labor market data (GDP, inflation level, and labor market data are crucial for the Bank of Canada in planning credit and monetary policy parameters).
Deterioration in the indicators is expected, which may have a negative impact on CAD and a positive impact on the USD/CAD pair. A breakout of the key resistance level at 1.3417 (200 EMA on the daily chart) would signal the return of USD/CAD to the medium-term bullish market zone, considering that the pair remains within the framework of long-term and global bullish markets.
The first signal for resuming long positions could be a breakout of today's high at 1.3370 (50 EMA on the weekly chart, 50 EMA and upper line of the downward channel on the 1-hour chart).
Sequential breakout of resistance levels at 1.3450 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous upward wave from 0.9700 to 1.4600 reached in January 2016), 1.3470 (144 EMA on the daily chart), and 1.3495 (50 EMA on the daily chart) will confirm the return of USD/CAD to the medium-term bullish market zone.
In an alternative scenario, after a breakout of the local support level at 1.3315, USD/CAD will resume its decline towards key support levels at 1.3135 and 1.3075, which separate the long-term bullish market from the bearish one.
Support levels: 1.3315, 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3135, 1.3075
Resistance levels: 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3417, 1.3435, 1.3450, 1.3470, 1.3495, 1.3600, 1.3665, 1.3700, 1.3810, 1.3860, 1.3900, 1.3970, 1.4000