There are hardly any economic reports on Thursday. Essentially, we can only highlight two reports, both of which are quite secondary in importance. The first is the eurozone's third estimate of GDP for the first quarter. The only saving grace for this report is the fact that the third estimate is final. Therefore, it might provide something unexpected. However, in general, it is difficult to expect any surprising values from this report, as economic growth in the eurozone has been zero for two consecutive quarters.
The second report is the number of unemployment claims in the US. This report is weekly, and typically, its value aligns closely with forecasts. We might see deviations, but they are usually minimal. So, if we don't receive truly discouraging values, there will be no significant reaction to this data. Both currency pairs continue to move primarily sideways.
Analysis of fundamental events:There is absolutely nothing noteworthy in terms of fundamental events on Thursday. Perhaps there may be some unplanned speeches by officials from the European Central Bank or the Federal Reserve, but US officials are no longer able to comment on monetary policy, and European officials have already repeatedly expressed their views over the past two weeks. Therefore, new and important information in this regard is highly questionable. Thus, it is very difficult to expect strong movements on Thursday. Any movements we see will be random and technical in nature.
General conclusions:There are hardly any important events to mention on Thursday, so we expect weak volatility and weak intraday movements. The market is clearly taking a break this week, although there is no classic flat. Both currency pairs simply remain within limited ranges, often exhibiting swinging movements. Most likely, such trading characteristics will persist on Thursday.
Basic trading rules:1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.
3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.
5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.
How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.
MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.
Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.