Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,972.76, below the psychological level of 2,000 located at 8/8 Murray and above the 21 SMA located at 1,936. We can see an exhaustion of bullish strength and a technical correction after four consecutive weeks of bullishness.
According to the weekly chart, it is observed that on August 27, gold broke sharply through the downtrend channel that had formed since early January 2023. The chart shows the second consecutive week of decline showing a technical correction.
If gold breaks below 1,968, we could expect the technical correction to accelerate and it could reach the key area of 1,932, which could be seen as an opportunity to buy.
XAU/USD turned lower after reaching 2,009 but remains above the monthly low of 1,968. The two moving averages (21, 200) give gold a positive outlook. As long as it trades above 1,932, any correction will be seen as a buying opportunity.
The weekly chart shows that if gold falls below 1,932, a trend reversal could occur and it could reach the psychological level of 1,900 and could even reach the downtrend channel that was broken around 1,876.
If in the coming days gold consolidates above 8/8 Murray, it could reach the high of 2021 around 2,070 and could even reach 2,079.
For now, the markets are convinced that the FED will not increase its interest rate further this year, which makes gold lose its refuge appeal, and investors turn to risk assets which could limit the bullish movement of gold.
Our trading plan for the next few days is to buy gold in case it consolidates above 1,968, with targets at 2,000 and 2,070.
In the event that gold falls below 1,968, it will be seen as a signal to sell with targets at 1,932, and around this area we could expect a technical rebound, which could be seen as an opportunity to buy.
The eagle indicator since May 2023 is giving a positive divergence signal. If the indicator falls below the trendline, we could expect a bearish acceleration in the coming days.