There will be few macro data on Thursday. None in the European Union and the United Kingdom. But there will be only two more or less significant reports in the United States. These are the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the initial jobless claims. Recently, many have started to pay more attention to the PPI, but I don't see the market actively working on it. After all, the regular inflation reports are the most important, but even those just cause a reaction of a maximum of 60 points, which is quite small for the euro. Therefore, I don't think that the PPI will resonate or provoke a strong movement.
The same applies to initial jobless claims, which hardly ever deviates from forecasts. And if it doesn't deviate, the market has nothing to work on. Therefore, the focus should be entirely on the Bank of England meeting. Take note that the pound could pull the euro both down and up.
Fundamental events:There will be only one fundamental event on Thursday. The BoE will announce the results of its meeting. Traders are certain that the rate will increase by 0.25% for the twelfth consecutive time, so they have most likely already worked out this decision. However, the pound may still appreciate, as the market is now using any excuse for new purchases. The final communique and the distribution of votes in the interest rate vote among the members of the Monetary Committee will also matter. The more votes against a rate hike (above 2), the more chance we have of seeing the pound fall, as the market may then believe that the BoE is getting ready to end its monetary tightening cycle.
General conclusions:On Thursday, you should pay attention to the BoE meeting. Naturally, it is impossible to predict its results, the content of the communique, and the distribution of interest rate votes. Therefore, it is impossible to predict the market's reaction. It would be best to close all positions and leave the market before this event. Or set a Stop Loss for open positions at break-even (if possible). Prepare for a sharp spike in volatility, and both pairs could move in both directions alternately.
Basic rules of the trading system:1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.
3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.
4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.
5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.
On the chart:Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.