Yesterday, several excellent entry signals were made. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and get a picture of what happened there. In my morning forecast, I considered entering the market at 1.2484. A breakout and the retest of the 1.2484 level after the release of manufacturing business activity data, which came better than expected, produced a sell signal. At the time of writing, the price dropped by more than 30 pips. In the second half of the day, the pair failed to return to 1.2476, and a false breakout creates another entry sell entry point, which resulted in a fall to 1.2440. The bulls tried hard to protect this level in the middle of the American session. After a buy signal, the price rose by 30 pips.
To open long positions on GBP/USD:
Taking into account that there is no fundamental statistics for the UK today, buyers will have an excellent chance to build an upward correction. However, a lot will depend on the reaction of the market to US data and the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, which we will discuss in more detail in a forecast for the second half of the day. For now, the main task for buyers is to protect the intermediate support at 1.2469, formed yesterday. I expect the pound to decrease in price and a false breakout through this level to occur. This will produce a buy signal with the target around the 1.2508 area – the upper border of the sideways channel. A breakout and consolidation above this range will make an additional buying signal with the target at 1.2543. The most distant target is seen near the 1.2580 area – a monthly high, where I am going to take profit.
If the pair decreases to 1.2469 with no bullish activity there, I will open long positions only after a false breakout in the area of the next support at 1.2436. I will also buy GBP/USD from a low of 1.2413, allowing a correction of 30-35 pips intraday.
To open short positions for GBP/USD:
The bears showed their presence in the market yesterday with another significant drop in the pound, but today there will be a different situation. The focus is also on the second half of the day, but it would be nice to show some activity around 1.2508 first. If the bulls fail to break through this level and a false breakout occurs, pressure on the pound will grow and the target will stand at 1.2469. A breakout and an upside retest of this range will exert pressure on the pound, producing a sell signal with the target at 1.2436. The most distant target stands at a low of 1.2413, where I am going to take profit.
If GBP/USD goes up with no bearish activity at 1.2508, which is unlikely as demand for risky assets is limited due to the Fed meeting today, I will sell after a test of the next resistance level at 1.2508. Only a false breakout there will create a sell entry point. If there is no bearish activity there either, I will sell GBP/USD on from a high of 1.2543, allowing a bearish correction of 30-35 pips intraday.
Indicator signals:
Moving averages
Trading is carried out in the area of the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a sideways trend ahead of important news.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are viewed by the author on the hourly chart and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart.
Bollinger Bands
Support stands at 1.2445, in line with the lower band.
Indicator description:
Moving average (MA) determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Colored yellow on the chart.Moving average (MA) determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Colored green on the chart.Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD). Fast EMA 12. Slow EMA 26. SMA 9.Bollinger Bands. Period 20Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions are the total long position of non-commercial traders.Non-commercial short positions are the total short position of non-commercial traders.Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.