The current week promises to be very interesting:
The FOMC meeting will occur, after which the interest rate may rise by another 0.25%. Traders are already prepared for such a decision.A press conference with Jerome Powell will be held, which is very important for the dollar's prospects, and has been experiencing significant problems recently. If Powell allows for one or two more rate hikes, the US currency may finally show growth, surprising the market.The beginning of a new month means unemployment and payroll data will be released.The nonfarm payrolls indicator has been steadily declining in recent months, indicating a worsening labor market situation, and Friday's report is unlikely to be an exception. However, the more important question will be how accurately traders can predict the figure. In any case, the US economy is slowly slowing down, as evidenced by recent GDP reports. Thus, the dollar has no basis for strong growth, but at the same time, it has been falling for quite some time as well. The European Union's economy is also not experiencing its best times right now, so the euro currency cannot have support due to economic data. Today in America, the ISM index report will be released, likely to show something other than positive dynamics. In the first half of the day, the US currency is slightly growing, but this growth is too weak to draw conclusions based on it.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair completed fixing above the sideways corridor, which allows us to expect a continuation of growth toward the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1273). Yesterday, a "bearish" divergence was formed at the MACD indicator, which favored the US currency, and a decline toward the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.0941). A rebound in quotes from this level will allow for new growth, and closing below it will continue the decline toward the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0610).
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, speculators closed 1,147 long contracts and 3,892 short contracts. The sentiment of major traders remains "bullish" and continues to strengthen overall. The total number of long contracts concentrated in the hands of speculators now amounts to 243 thousand, while short contracts - only 74 thousand. The European currency has been growing for over half a year, but the information background is beginning to change, which may lead to a decline in the EU currency. The ECB may already have reduced the pace of raising rates to 0.25% this week, which is unlikely to please euro buyers. The difference between the number of long and short contracts is threefold, indicating the proximity of the moment when bears will become active. For now, the strong "bullish" sentiment persists, but I think the situation will change soon. The euro has maintained high levels in recent weeks but has not grown further.
News calendar for the US and the European Union:
US - ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC).
On May 1st, the economic events calendar contains only one entry, but it is an important one. The influence of the information background on traders' sentiment for the remainder of the day may be of medium strength.
EUR/USD forecast and advice for traders:
Selling the pair could have been opened upon the rebound from the 1.1035 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1000 and 1.0917. These trades can now be held open. Purchases are possible upon rebounding from the 1.0917 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1000 and 1.1035.